Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That we hope will just be a bore,
But going due West,
Will make him a pest,
And bring him right to our shore!
The play 'The Tempest' was based on reports of a hurricane from some of the fleet.
So, it could at least be made topical...
What you highlighted in bold is what's going on at the Cape Verde Islands. The westernmost low is what's left of tropical wave Invest 99L, and the low pressure center of Igor and the low pressure center right next to Igor are both from a strong tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands.
But what about the southern Lesser Antilles area of interest?
Not happy to see two analog systems have passed over me :\
----------------
also everyone, keep me informed XD I'm on my crappy netbook at the library and I'm in break, excuse any orthography problems, this keyboard is too small T_T
not to scary.... (sarcasm)
I would say pretty good consensus.
Well that there would be a fish storm, but still have to wait and see where we are at that point and time. Chances are the models will continue to trend slightly west.
THE VIGOROUS REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OF GASTON IS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG 70W FROM 15N TO 20N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GASTON COULD
REAPPEAR OVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SPINNING NEAR 21N81W. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP FROM A FEW DAYS AGO
TO MOST RECENT IMAGE IS SHOWING THE MONSOONAL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CARIBBEAN...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. LONG RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN
THIS REGION AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALSO
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE FAR SE BASIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Still undefined :( Keep trying, I always get that annoying red x everytime I try to put up a graphic, at least your's goes up.
Not really, the high is building in.. It's just too early to tell what Igor will do from this point. It may not recurve, no matter how many people say it will, doesn't mean anything. You would think people would learn form Hurricane Earl.
interesting....GOM
maker two time shows noo goiung out to sea
`I guess the fl. st. site cant handle the copy image location thing. well its a pretty graphic when your on their site. LOL
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC WED SEP 8 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100908 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100908 1800 100909 0600 100909 1800 100910 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 23.7W 14.0N 24.9W 14.4N 26.6W 15.4N 28.5W
BAMD 13.8N 23.7W 14.0N 25.9W 14.4N 28.1W 15.0N 30.3W
BAMM 13.8N 23.7W 14.2N 25.2W 14.9N 27.1W 16.0N 29.3W
LBAR 13.8N 23.7W 14.1N 25.5W 15.0N 27.9W 16.0N 30.9W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 61KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800 100913 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 31.0W 19.3N 37.2W 21.4N 44.8W 20.7N 52.1W
BAMD 15.7N 32.7W 17.3N 37.9W 19.6N 42.4W 22.3N 46.0W
BAMM 17.2N 32.1W 18.8N 38.7W 20.1N 45.3W 19.4N 50.5W
LBAR 17.1N 34.1W 18.1N 40.8W 18.6N 45.5W 19.0N 49.0W
SHIP 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS 84KTS
DSHP 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS 84KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 23.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 22.6W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 21.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 30NM
Yeah IKE, that is a definte positive NAO signal on the 12z EURO.
Updated blog shows my forecast track, and thoughts on Igor.
Nearly moving NW on the end of the run.
What does positive imply on Cape Verde tracks?
MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GASTON COULD
REAPPEAR OVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN.
ECMWF forecasts Igor at 956 mb which is likely a major hurricane, about 100 knots...
yea its yesterdays
240 hour image is Saturday...10 days from now.
Igor esta en la misma posicion de San Felipe II 1928, categoria 5.
Iggy JSL Loop
Viewing: 751 - 801
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