Skyepony's WunderBlog

Swirl Spotting

By: Skyepony, 5:17 AM GMT on 九月 30, 2007

91L~ east of the Leeward Islands~ 25kts 1008mb
07/1715 UTC 17.1N 54.5W TOO WEAK 91L
07/1145 UTC 16.6N 53.7W T1.0/1.5 91L
07/0645 UTC 15.5N 52.8W T1.5/1.5 91L
06/2345 UTC 15.1N 52.2W T1.0/1.0 91L
06/1745 UTC 15.1N 51.4W T1.0/1.0 91L
06/1145 UTC 14.5N 50.3W T1.0/1.0 91L
06/0645 UTC 13.6N 49.6W T1.0/0.0 91L
05/2345 UTC 12.9N 48.1W TOO WEAK 91L
05/1745 UTC 9.8N 51.1W TOO WEAK 91L
05/1145 UTC 12.1N 48.7W TOO WEAK 91L
04/2345 UTC 10.7N 48.1W TOO WEAK 91L
04/1745 UTC 10.3N 46.0W TOO WEAK 91L
04/1145 UTC 10.0N 45.0W TOO WEAK 91L
03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L
03/1745 UTC 9.6N 41.0W TOO WEAK 91L
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

93L North of Hispanolia20kts 1009mb AKA 92L. Probibly had too much of Karen's trough reminents to remain 92L once it relocated.
07/1145 UTC 21.7N 70.5W TOO WEAK 93L
07/0645 UTC 20.9N 66.1W T1.0/1.0 93L
05/1745 UTC 21.1N 66.7W TOO WEAK 92L
05/1145 UTC 22.8N 67.3W TOO WEAK 92L
05/0645 UTC 26.4N 75.8W TOO WEAK 92L
04/2345 UTC 26.4N 73.8W TOO WEAK 92L
04/1745 UTC 25.8N 74.0W TOO WEAK 92L
04/1145 UTC 25.6N 74.7W TOO WEAK 92L
04/0645 UTC 24.2N 71.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
..........................



****Melissa****20kts 1010mb Back up on the NAVY

05/1145 UTC 24.6N 53.4W TOO WEAK MELISSA
05/0645 UTC 24.0N 53.0W T1.0/1.0 MELISSA
04/2345 UTC 23.2N 54.6W T1.0/1.0 MELISSA
04/1745 UTC 23.3N 51.2W TOO WEAK MELISSA
04/1145 UTC 22.6N 50.6W TOO WEAK MELISSA
04/0645 UTC 22.0N 50.0W TOO WEAK MELISSA
03/2345 UTC 21.5N 48.5W TOO WEAK MELISSA
03/1745 UTC 21.2N 47.2W TOO WEAK MELISSA
01/2345 UTC 17.1N 40.0W T1.0/2.0 MELISSA
01/1745 UTC 16.9N 38.5W T1.5/2.0 MELISSA
01/1145 UTC 16.4N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 MELISSA
01/0600 UTC 16.2N 36.1W T1.5/2.0 MELISSA
30/2345 UTC 16.1N 34.7W T1.0/2.0 MELISSA
30/1745 UTC 16.1N 33.0W T1.5/2.5 MELISSA
30/1145 UTC 15.9N 31.8W T2.0/2.5 MELISSA
30/0600 UTC 16.3N 30.4W T2.5/2.5 MELISSA
29/2345 UTC 15.7N 29.7W T2.5/2.5 MELISSA
29/1745 UTC 15.2N 29.0W T2.5/2.5 MELISSA
29/1145 UTC 15.0N 28.0W T2.0/2.0 MELISSA
29/0600 UTC 14.0N 27.6W T2.0/2.0 14L
29/0000 UTC 14.3N 27.3W T1.5/1.5 14L
29/0000 UTC 14.3N 27.3W T1.5/1.5 14L
28/1745 UTC 13.8N 26.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
28/1145 UTC 13.7N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 99L
...........

Invest 94L Blob in the Caribbean ~20kts 1005mg


RGB loop



07/2345 UTC 18.5N 84.8W TOO WEAK 94L
07/1745 UTC 18.5N 84.2W TOO WEAK 94L
07/1145 UTC 17.1N 82.3W T1.0/1.0 94L




.................................

Invest 95L Extreme NE Atlantic, very Subtropical looking, 48N 22W~40kts 995mb. I can't say I've ever seen an invest that far north. Looks like maybe a STS may come out of this in post season. Extratropical now.
07/1745 UTC 54.0N 22.7W EXTRATROPICAL 95L
07/1145 UTC 51.0N 22.0W ST2.5/2.5 95L
07/0600 UTC 48.8N 21.7W ST2.5/2.5 95L
.................................



NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive








Mon-Tuesday Less onshore showers & lightning. Wind comes down alittle Ocean remains dangerous. 80s coastal, 90s inland.


Wed- Thursday continued drying with a possible developing surface low lurking through the Bahamas.

Friday- sunday.. Yeah~ fall like weather returns with a front.




click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
October 1 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.





Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -2.1 to -2.2
Region 3 DECREASED FROM -1.2 To -1.6
Region 3.4 DECREASED FROM -0.8 To -1.1
Region 4 remained -.5

ESPI DECREASED FROM -0.76 TO -0.87

We are in La Ni�a conditions 8 weeks, now moderate conditiobs exist.


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Updated: 2:30 AM GMT on 十月 08, 2007

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ECFL Swirl Spotting

By: Skyepony, 4:12 AM GMT on 九月 22, 2007

TS Lorenzo

RGB loop




28/0645 UTC 20.5N 97.2W OVERLAND LORENZO
27/2345 UTC 20.4N 96.1W T3.0/3.0 LORENZO
27/1745 UTC 20.8N 95.3W T2.5/2.5 LORENZO
27/1145 UTC 21.0N 95.5W T1.5/2.0 13L
27/1145 UTC 21.0N 95.5W T1.5/2.0 13L
27/0645 UTC 21.0N 95.2W T2.0/2.5 13L
26/2345 UTC 21.2N 94.7W T2.0/2.5 13L
26/1745 UTC 21.1N 94.5W T2.5/2.5 13L
26/1145 UTC 21.1N 94.9W T2.5/2.5 13L
26/0645 UTC 21.6N 95.8W T2.0/2.0 13L
25/2345 UTC 21.5N 95.1W T1.5/1.5 13L
25/1745 UTC 22.2N 94.8W T1.5/1.5 94L
25/1145 UTC 22.3N 94.9W T1.0/1.0 94L
25/0645 UTC 22.5N 94.6W T1.0/1.0 94L
24/2345 UTC 22.5N 94.0W TOO WEAK 94L
24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
24/1145 UTC 21.7N 92.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
24/0645 UTC 21.5N 91.9W TOO WEAK 94L

.........
Tropical Storm Karen~ 35kts 1009mb.


RGB loop
28/2345 UTC 16.6N 51.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
28/1745 UTC 15.9N 49.2W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
28/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.0W T1.5/2.5 KAREN
28/0545 UTC 13.9N 49.3W T2.0/2.5 KAREN
27/2345 UTC 14.0N 48.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
27/1745 UTC 14.2N 47.9W T2.0/3.0 KAREN
27/0545 UTC 13.1N 46.0W T3.0/3.5 KAREN
26/2345 UTC 12.7N 44.5W T3.0/3.5 KAREN
26/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.5W T3.5/3.5 KAREN
26/1145 UTC 11.8N 42.1W T3.5/3.5 KAREN
26/0545 UTC 11.1N 41.2W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/1745 UTC 10.5N 39.7W T2.0/2.5 KAREN
25/1145 UTC 10.6N 37.7W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/0545 UTC 10.2N 36.8W T2.5/2.5 12L
24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.5/2.5 96L
24/1745 UTC 9.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
24/1145 UTC 9.0N 31.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
24/0600 UTC 8.7N 30.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/2345 UTC 7.8N 30.3W TOO WEAK 96L
23/1800 UTC 7.5N 28.5W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/1215 UTC 6.3N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/0600 UTC 6.0N 25.8W T1.0/1.0 96L






TD 14

RGB LOOP



29/0000 UTC 14.3N 27.3W T1.5/1.5 14L
28/1745 UTC 13.8N 26.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
28/1145 UTC 13.7N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 99L
...........
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






Friday~ trough swings down, moves the surface low toward New England. Rain chances drop, bestchance~ interior afternoon seabreeze.

Sat~50% afternoon showers

Sunday-Thursday..low develops on a trough, probibly around the Bahamas, rain & wind possible.






click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
September 24 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.





Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -1.9 to -2.1
Region 3 remained -1.2
Region 3.4 INCREASED from -.9 to -.8
Region 4 DECREASED FROM -.4 to -.5



ESPI ROSE FROM -1.08 TO -0.76

We are in La Nia conditions 7 weeks now.


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Updated: 5:03 AM GMT on 九月 29, 2007

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Blob Recon

By: Skyepony, 10:27 PM GMT on 九月 13, 2007

STD 10~



RGB LOOP


21/1215 UTC 28.7N 85.5W ST1.5/1.5 93L
21/0645 UTC 28.2N 85.5W T1.5/1.5 93L
20/2332 UTC 27.6N 85.0W TOO WEAK 93L
20/ 15 UTC 28.4N 80.7W TOO WEAK 93L
19/1745 UTC 28.4N 80.2W ST1.5/1.5 93L
18/2345 UTC 25.3N 78.8W ST1.5/1.5 93L
. . . . .

Tropical Depression Ingrid~ Noaa & navy gave up on here again.

19/1745 UTC 21.7N 64.4W TOO WEAK INGRID
19/1145 UTC 21.1N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 08L
17/0600 UTC 17.5N 59.5W T1.0/2.0 INGRID
16/2345 UTC 17.6N 59.0W T1.5/2.5 INGRID
16/1745 UTC 17.3N 58.5W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
16/1145 UTC 17.3N 57.4W T3.0/3.0 INGRID
16/0600 UTC 16.9N 56.5W T2.0/2.5 INGRID
15/2345 UTC 16.8N 55.2W T2.0/2.5 INGRID
15/1745 UTC 16.4N 54.6W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
15/1145 UTC 16.1N 52.9W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
15/0600 UTC 16.4N 52.3W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
14/2345 UTC 15.9N 51.0W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
14/1145 UTC 15.3N 49.5W T3.0/3.0 INGRID
14/0645 UTC 15.4N 49.1W T2.5/2.5 INGRID
13/2345 UTC 14.4N 48.7W T2.5/2.5 08L
13/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.2W T2.5/2.5 08L
13/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L
13/0600 UTC 12.8N 47.7W T2.5/2.5 08L
12/2345 UTC 12.4N 46.4W T2.5/2.5 08L
12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L
12/1145 UTC 13.0N 44.9W T2.0/2.0 91L
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 43.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
11/2345 UTC 12.1N 41.7W T1.5/1.5 91L
11/1745 UTC 11.7N 41.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/1145 UTC 9.7N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/0815 UTC 10.6N 43.3W TOO WEAK 91L
10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L
10/1145 UTC 9.6N 38.6W TOO WEAK 91L
10/0645 UTC 9.9N 39.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/2345 UTC 9.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/1745 UTC 10.2N 36.2W TOO WEAK 91L




Recon Flying Thursday afternoon (EDT) & for a 2am fri morning with 6 hour fixes after if need be. NOAA dropsnode mission Thursday evening. Thursday & Friday NOAA will be flying it near all day& night at times 2 planes. & check this out..

REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





severe weather possible






click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Atl
up top

Area under construction






~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated Sept 4th~ weekly CPC report is out. From the monthly..
The recent SST forecasts for the Nio 3.4 region range from ENSO-neutral to La Nia (Fig. 5). Nearly all of the dynamical ENSO models forecast the continuing development of La Nia during the next couple of months, and several of the statistical models also indicate the continuation of La Nia conditions through the end of the year. Therefore, current atmospheric conditions (stronger than average easterlies over the west-central Pacific) and observed oceanic trends indicate that La Nia conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months.

Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, the most recent model outlooks, and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, wetter than normal conditions are expected over Indonesia and drier than normal conditions are anticipated over the central equatorial Pacific during September - November. During this period, potential impacts over the contiguous United States include wetter than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest and drier than normal conditions over the southwestern states.




Region 1-2 increased from -1.2 to -1.9
Region 3 remained -1.2
Region 3.4 decreased from -0.7 to -.9
Region 4 DECREASED FROM -.2 to -.4

ESPI Fell again from -0.96 to -1.08

We are in La Nia conditions 6 weeks now.


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Updated: 5:38 PM GMT on 九月 21, 2007

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Hurricane Humberto Recon Decoded

By: Skyepony, 3:08 AM GMT on 九月 12, 2007

Gabrielle may bring some rain to Nova Scotia. NOAA is no longer issuing advisories on her.

Hurricane Humberto~ Is in the Gulf. The Navy put it back up, NOAA reaimed a floater at it. Some models flare this up a touch as it comes in to TX. Maybe another flood event there.
0515 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144527.shtml?tswind120#contents" target="_blank">


12/0645 UTC 27.1N 95.5W T1.0/1.0 90L
11/2315 UTC 26.5N 94.2W TOO WEAK 90L
11/1745 UTC 26.0N 95.7W T1.0/1.0 90L
10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L
10/1745 UTC 25.3N 93.5W TOO WEAK 90L
10/1115 UTC 25.4N 92.5W TOO WEAK 90L
10/0645 UTC 22.7N 92.9W T1.0/1.5 90L
09/2345 UTC 24.8N 89.8W T1.0/1.5 90L
09/1745 UTC 24.7N 88.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
09/1145 UTC 22.8N 88.2W T1.0/1.0 90L
09/0645 UTC 23.3N 86.7W T1.0/1.0 90L


TD 8~ 25kts 1009mb~ This looks like a blob with ambition, a blob with game. It's of the dreaded slow moving varity. Just about all models develop this. Fade to scary blob music...


RGB Loop

12/1145 UTC 13.0N 44.9W T2.0/2.0 91L
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 43.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
11/2345 UTC 12.1N 41.7W T1.5/1.5 91L
11/1745 UTC 11.7N 41.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/1145 UTC 9.7N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/0815 UTC 10.6N 43.3W TOO WEAK 91L
10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L
10/1145 UTC 9.6N 38.6W TOO WEAK 91L
10/0645 UTC 9.9N 39.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/2345 UTC 9.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/1745 UTC 10.2N 36.2W TOO WEAK 91L



92L blob in the mid atlantic around the lesser antillies. Navy has taken it down & NOAA took the floater off it. The trough above it pretty much grabbed it & ripped it in 2. One half of the convection may be headed to FL, increasing the chance of rain.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Surf is up, watch out for rips
Monday~ Good chance of a rainy day for all of ECFL
Tuesday Higher chance north, but south may see some too.








click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Atl
up top



WPAC
90W~gone
99W~15kts 1010mb
97W~ DANAS~ 55kts 982mb, fish storm.







~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated Sept 4th~ weekly CPC report is out. From the monthly..
The recent SST forecasts for the Nio 3.4 region range from ENSO-neutral to La Nia (Fig. 5). Nearly all of the dynamical ENSO models forecast the continuing development of La Nia during the next couple of months, and several of the statistical models also indicate the continuation of La Nia conditions through the end of the year. Therefore, current atmospheric conditions (stronger than average easterlies over the west-central Pacific) and observed oceanic trends indicate that La Nia conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months.

Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, the most recent model outlooks, and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, wetter than normal conditions are expected over Indonesia and drier than normal conditions are anticipated over the central equatorial Pacific during September - November. During this period, potential impacts over the contiguous United States include wetter than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest and drier than normal conditions over the southwestern states.



Region 1-2 increased from -2.3 to -1.2
Region 3 remained -1.2
Region 3.4 decreased from -0.6 to -.7
Region 4 DECREASED FROM 0 to -.2

ESPI Fell again from -0.54 to -.96

We are in weak La Nina conditions 5 weeks now.


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Updated: 5:57 AM GMT on 九月 13, 2007

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Blobs Reprise & ENSO update

By: Skyepony, 5:28 PM GMT on 九月 05, 2007

Tropical Depression Gabrielle~ After it hit extreme eastern NC she's moving off to the NNE. Most certainly still some wavesfor the NE. She joined in the reprise a little too but now she's a 30kt wind that's falling apart. Nova Scotia gets lucky. NHC has just issued their last advisery as the center of circulation has become elongated & is loosing tropical caractoristics.


RGB Loop



11/1745 UTC 39.8N 63.6W T1.0/2.0 GABRIELLE
11/1145 UTC 39.1N 66.4W T1.5/2.0 GABRIELLE
11/0815 UTC 38.9N 67.6W T2.0/2.0 GABRIELLE
10/2345 UTC 37.9N 69.8W T2.0/2.0 GABRIELLE
10/1745 UTC 37.3N 71.8W T1.5/1.5 GABRIELLE
10/1145 UTC 37.0N 73.8W T1.0/2.0 GABRIELLE
10/0645 UTC 37.0N 74.6W T1.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
09/2345 UTC 35.9N 75.7W T1.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
09/1745 UTC 35.3N 76.2W T2.5/3.0 GABRIELLE
09/1145 UTC 34.2N 76.8W T3.0/3.0 GABRIELLE
09/0645 UTC 33.5N 76.2W T3.0/3.0 GABRIELLE
08/2345 UTC 32.9N 75.3W T3.0/3.0 GABRIELLE
08/1745 UTC 31.7N 74.2W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
08/1145 UTC 31.1N 73.8W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
08/0645 UTC 30.6N 73.2W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
07/2345 UTC 30.0N 71.6W ST1.5/1.5 99L
07/1745 UTC 29.6N 70.8W T2.0/2.0 99L
07/1445 UTC 29.5N 69.6W T2.0/2.0 99L
07/1145 UTC 29.0N 68.8W T1.0/1.0 99L
07/0645 UTC 28.4N 69.8W ST1.5/1.5 99L
06/1745 UTC 28.5N 70.0W TOO WEAK 99L
06/1145 UTC 28.7N 69.3W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
05/2345 UTC 29.5N 69.7W T2.0/2.0 99L
05/1745 UTC 29.4N 70.5W T2.0/2.0 99L
05/1145 UTC 29.1N 71.5W T2.0/2.0 99L
05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L
04/2345 UTC 29.4N 73.7W T1.5/1.5 99L
04/1745 UTC 29.5N 73.8W T1.5/1.5 99L
04/1145 UTC 29.2N 76.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
03/2345 UTC 30.1N 77.3W TOO WEAK 99L


90L~ Was in the Gulf
Pretty disorganized. The Navy has taken it down. Some models flare this up a touch as it comes in to TX. Maybe another flood event there.

10/2345 UTC 25.4N 93.6W T1.0/1.0 90L
10/1745 UTC 25.3N 93.5W TOO WEAK 90L
10/1115 UTC 25.4N 92.5W TOO WEAK 90L
10/0645 UTC 22.7N 92.9W T1.0/1.5 90L
09/2345 UTC 24.8N 89.8W T1.0/1.5 90L
09/1745 UTC 24.7N 88.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
09/1145 UTC 22.8N 88.2W T1.0/1.0 90L
09/0645 UTC 23.3N 86.7W T1.0/1.0 90L


91L Blob off Africa Has rose above the 10N again, below 10N can make it hard to spin. Back on the board with a T# of 1. Just about all models develop this.

RGB Loop

11/1745 UTC 11.7N 41.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/1145 UTC 9.7N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
11/0815 UTC 10.6N 43.3W TOO WEAK 91L
10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L
10/1145 UTC 9.6N 38.6W TOO WEAK 91L
10/0645 UTC 9.9N 39.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/2345 UTC 9.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 91L
09/1745 UTC 10.2N 36.2W TOO WEAK 91L



92L blob in the mid atlantic around the lesser antillies. Navy has taken it down & NOAA took the floater off it. The trough above it pretty much grabbed it & ripped it in 2. One half of the convection may be headed to FL, increasing the chance of rain.

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Surf is up, watch out for rips
Monday~ Good chance of a rainy day for all of ECFL
Tuesday Higher chance north, but south may see some too.








click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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Atl
up top



WPAC
90W~gone
99W~15kts 1010mb
97W~ DANAS~ 55kts 982mb, fish storm.







~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated Sept 4th~ weekly CPC report is out. From the monthly..
The recent SST forecasts for the Nio 3.4 region range from ENSO-neutral to La Nia (Fig. 5). Nearly all of the dynamical ENSO models forecast the continuing development of La Nia during the next couple of months, and several of the statistical models also indicate the continuation of La Nia conditions through the end of the year. Therefore, current atmospheric conditions (stronger than average easterlies over the west-central Pacific) and observed oceanic trends indicate that La Nia conditions will further develop and possibly strengthen during the next 3 months.

Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, the most recent model outlooks, and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, wetter than normal conditions are expected over Indonesia and drier than normal conditions are anticipated over the central equatorial Pacific during September - November. During this period, potential impacts over the contiguous United States include wetter than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest and drier than normal conditions over the southwestern states.



Region 1-2 increased from -2.3 to -1.2
Region 3 remained -1.2
Region 3.4 decreased from -0.6 to -.7
Region 4 DECREASED FROM 0 to -.2

ESPI Fell again from -0.54 to -.96

We are in weak La Nina conditions 5 weeks now.


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Updated: 9:02 PM GMT on 九月 11, 2007

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
気温: 81.1 °F
露点温度: 66.4 °F
湿度: 61%
風: 6.0 Mph from the 北西
突風: -
Updated: 10:23 AM EDT on 十月 30, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
気温: 48.9 °F
露点温度: 41.3 °F
湿度: 75%
風: ほぼ無風
突風: 0.0 Mph
Updated: 10:23 AM EDT on 十月 30, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
気温: 40.0 °F
露点温度: 37.0 °F
湿度: 90%
風: 1.0 Mph from the 南西
突風: 1.0 Mph
Updated: 9:12 AM EDT on 十月 30, 2014

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